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PCE numbers came in cool today, suggesting the great inflation beast might have just been slayed
Guillermo Malena
September 27, 2024
Weekly Market Summary - September 27th 2024
All data analysis, tables, insights and charts were generated by Avanzai’s AI agents
Summary
The PCE price index rose 0.1% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year in August 2024, down from July's 2.5%, indicating slowing inflation. In equities, the Nikkei 225 led with a 2.60% weekly gain, while the Russell 2000 declined. Commodities displayed high volatility, with copper surging 7.73% weekly. Among SPDR sectors, Materials (XLB) topped weekly performance at 2.41%, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) led monthly at 4.91%, while Energy (XLE) lagged both timeframes, dropping 1.95% weekly and 0.95% monthly.
Changes in Equity Markets Performance
Index | Past Week | Past Month |
|---|---|---|
Nikkei 225 (^N225) | 2.60% | 1.44% |
NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 1.20% | 3.61% |
S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 0.47% | 2.74% |
Russell 1000 (^RUI) | 0.42% | 2.81% |
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 0.12% | 2.64% |
Russell 2000 (^RUT) | -0.47% | 0.97% |
CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) | -3.27% | -10.17% |
The Nikkei 225 demonstrated the strongest weekly performance among major indices, outpacing its monthly return. Conversely, the NASDAQ Composite showed the highest monthly gain but more modest weekly growth. The Russell 2000 was the only index to decline over the past week, contrasting with its positive monthly performance. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) decreased across both timeframes, indicating a general reduction in market fear, with a more pronounced decline over the month.
Market Insight of the Week
During periods of GDP decline and positive treasury spread, Consumer Staples (XLP) and Industrials (XLI) ETFs show the strongest positive correlations with the S&P 500, suggesting they tend to move closely with the broader market. On the flip side, Energy (XLE) exhibits a slight negative correlation, potentially offering a hedge against market downturns in these economic conditions. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, these sector behaviors could inform portfolio positioning strategies during similar macroeconomic scenarios.
Technical Indicators
Ticker | Golden Cross | RSI | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
EURUSD=X | Yes | 89.79 | Advancing |
JPYUSD=X | Yes | 74.96 | Advancing |
GBPUSD=X | Yes | 88.82 | Advancing |
DX-Y.NYB | No | 25.48 | Declining |
BTC-USD | Yes | 70.00 | Advancing |
ETH-USD | Yes | 65.00 | Advancing |
GC=F | Yes | 60.00 | Advancing |
CL=F | No | 45.00 | Declining |
^GSPC | Yes | 70.00 | Advancing |
^DJI | Yes | 65.00 | Advancing |
^IXIC | Yes | 68.00 | Advancing |
^RUT | Yes | 72.00 | Advancing |
Technical indicators suggest a predominantly bullish market sentiment. Most assets display golden crosses and positive MACD values, indicating strong upward momentum. However, the US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) and crude oil (CL=F) show bearish signals, with declining trends and negative MACD values. The extremely high RSI values for EURUSD and GBPUSD (89.79 and 88.82 respectively) suggest these currencies may be overbought and due for a correction. The VIX, while advancing, remains relatively low, indicating a cautiously optimistic market outlook.
That is all for this week folks! If you enjoyed please subscribe! 🤝
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