The road to 100K ... on a gnx?

Summary

The road to 100K is getting real: BTC rips higher this week closing in on the level crypto bulls have been calling for since forever. Markets also feeling good with Trump's Treasury pick Bessent getting thumbs up from Wall St. NVIDIA earnings solid but market shrugged (stock only +0.5%) - maybe expectations got a bit ahead of themselves? Meanwhile oil running hot (+6.5%) on Ukraine v Russia, vol is def back.

I. NVIDIA earnings szn went well

NVIDIA and semiconductors' meteoric rise isn't just hype - it's showing up in the numbers: GPU giant's gross profits have surged 4x from $5B to $20B since 2020, with the broader semiconductor index following a similar upward trajectory.

Why does it matter? While some skeptics call this a bubble, the step-function increases in NVIDIA's actual profits, particularly in late 2023, demonstrate this is backed by fundamental business growth rather than just market speculation. The semiconductor index's correlated rise suggests this represents a broader technological transformation, not just one company's story.

II. Jobless claims are definitely increasing, but not out of the norm yet

Travel trends flash warning sign: TSA checkpoint data shows 2024 passenger volumes dipping below 2023 levels for the first time this year, breaking a consistent pattern of post-pandemic growth.

Why does it matter? With travel being one of the most resilient areas of consumer spending since reopening, this reversal could be an early indicator of softening consumer behavior. Worth monitoring closely as a potential canary in the coal mine for broader discretionary spending trends.

III. Tyson vs. Paul: The real winner was Netflix

After Jake Paul's win vs Mike Tyson over a week over, a clear winner has emerged: Netflix stands out as the clear winner in FAANG with 15.4% monthly excess returns, while others like Google (-2.3%) and Apple (-4.6%) significantly lag.

Why does it matter? The streaming giant's dominance could be linked to bets on its expanded content strategy, including high-profile boxing events like the controversial Paul-Tyson matchup. This performance gap shows markets rewarding Netflix's aggressive moves into sports/live events while traditional tech peers struggle to find new growth catalysts.

That is all for this week folks! If you enjoyed please subscribe! 🤝